Preparing for a radical restart and some kind of Biblical end-time

We are moving closer to what might be some kind of Biblical end-time and a radical restart for humanity lies before us. 2018 will be a year of unusual earth-quakes leading to the eruption of historical volcanoes with natural catastrophes of new dimensions and we will see the making of a financial/market break-down like we have never seen before. If 2017 was exciting, expect 2018 to be strange and extreme. We will see extreme actions be taken by global powerhouses to deal with North-Korea, as Kim Jong-un will be removed – it will not be in a politically correct way – but he will be impeached in whatever means they find most expedient. The strangeness will be found in the world of technology.

2018 is on.

It is easy to track the progress in technology and make predictions about “IoT will go to market”, “AI will be important” “CryptoCurrencies are here to stay”, “AR/VR/MR will enter our life” “Bio- and Nano Technology will be all over”. But that is not it. Homo sapiens are preparing to wake up, as we move closer to some kind of radical restart of our society. It will not be a new chapter, rather more like a completely new story for our species. It is now up to us to come up with models and new concepts on how to avoid becoming homo obsoletus. Our focus switches from growth and expansion to defining the role which we (human beings) want to play in the exponential world.  Here are some thoughts for a year of improvisation.


THE QUANTUM REVOLUTION – Changing our perception of the world

Be aware, Q1 and Q2 of 2018 will be crucial. The race is on. Financial Services, Energy, Automotive, it is a battle for the positions at the top because by the end of 2018 things will start shaking. Artificial Intelligence has already started to replace larger parts of our jobs, as we defined them, but until now it has been good news as the need for new jobs has been higher then the once getting replaced. “Well isn’t it as it has always been – jobs go away and new ones are created? – One of the most asked questions in 2017. NO! This time around it is different. Unlike previous revolutions (e.g. Agrar- and Industrial-) there is a fundamental difference. Change has always been about Authorities and about Technologies. This time, however, the authorities are moved into algorithms. The new rulers of the world are algorithms ran by a very small netocracy. Technologically speaking AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) will turn our world upside-down and an explosion of intelligence will lead us to a new perception on how we see the world. 2018 will be the year where we start to see the impact of the technology we have created.

Furthermore, in 2018 we will experience revolutionary break-throughs in quantum computing, building on top of our Newtonian physics as we know it. It will challenge core pillars of Albert Einstein and the year 2018 will be the year where quantum physics moves to a position next to gravity as one of the 2 core revolutions in physics from the 20th Century. It is bye-bye silicon and we will welcome new ways of processing data. Moore’s Law has reached its end, but the law of accelerating returns has not. In 2018, the exponentially for the first time will become something we relate to as the consequences will be radical.

Netscape 1.0. and the internet paved way for the ups and downs of the “WEB” era. We “ended” that in 2006 and moved on to a ten year “Mobile/App” first era, this was harmless. In 2017 we started the next chapter, the AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) and Quantum Computing era, this is where the real change caused by technology will BEGIN. A quantum world will open our mind to a new dimension and a new era. Instead of building batteries producing electronic waste we welcome air pressure as a force for transportation. An explosion of intelligence in a quantum world moving beyond the newtonian laws of physics.


HELLO ANXIETY  – Complexity reveals itself

The “knowledge hype” is on, and with all the focus on (subjective) truths, we will in the upcoming years become even more obsessed with plausible explanations and justified true (subjective) beliefs as technology matures. The flip side of this will be that the complexity of the world will become transparent. How little we really understand will be revealed. This will lead to frustrations. The dilemma, stated by the great Bertrand Russell, of the intelligent being anxious and the stupid more self-confident than ever, will influence our social and political systems more than ever.  As the level of frustration rises, we need to find ways to cope with the permanent revolution and change. How can we learn how to expect the unexpected? Whatever is thrown at us, we need to embrace it and create new models and questions.


THE ONLY VALUABLE OIL IS CANNABIS OIL

Some implications of the exponential world will be the breakthroughs in energy. Oil has recovered in 2017, due to some political restructuring and somewhat artificial control of supply/demand. The development is clear though, Crude Oil is not competitive anymore. We will of course never run out of this raw material, but it will be replaced. The only valuable oil in future is cannabis oil. A stock market entry might be too early now – but THC-Trading, here we go!

In 2018, more countries will legalise or at least take up the debate for a legalisation. Even in Norway, cannabis oil has now been accepted for medical usage. As the success stories reach mainstream media, the new “wonder medicine” will take the role of paracetamol and penicillin, only this time it is a natural substance. A whole industry breaks down and will be forced to move out of old models and structures. The hemp can replace cotton and wood as materials for clothing and buildings. From drug to saviour as our resources are scarce. Our trees take 15 years or more to grow, the hemp only needs 90 days. Whereas 10 kg of cotton needs 18.000 Liters (approx 4755 gallons) of water, 10 kg of hemp only need 4000 Liters (approx 1057 gallons). Hemp will replace our plastic packing, it is used as oil, in paper, as medicine, in food, clothing and many more. In 2018 the main media will however focus on the progress on curing cancer and deceases such as Alzheimer and Multiple Sclerosis (MS) and the impact THC / Cannabis Oil has on these. Most definitely 2018 will be a year opening for THC / Cannabis Oil. It is now just up to us betting on when cannabis will exceed the trading course of crude oil.


CRYPTONOMICS – From Homo economicus to Homo obsoletus 

BitCoin is the biggest bubble in history. Although dropping to 15.000 as the year closes out, we still should remember we started out the year with BitCoin being below 1000. What will be next? In 2018 the Buzzword-Bingo and craziness will continue. Eventually, even if it goes up to 50.000, the bubble will burst.

No doubt about it, Blockchain and CryptoCurrencies are here to stay, yet the illusion of a democratised world built on the blockchain will not happen that fast. The bubble will burst and it will be the biggest financial shake-up in history. Maybe not in 2018, but it will come – either by the underlying forces of the market or through needed global regulation. With other strong forces in place, it might bring us a financial crisis like we have never seen before.

Remember the early days of the internet and social media? What was the outcome? Young boys building a whole belief-system on anti-social behaviour, teaching us how to live together? Of-Course that didn’t work out. And democratised? In fact the powers amongst the big players such as Alphabet, Apple, Amazon and Alibaba has never been more centralised.

We must be cautious. There is a limit to the size of the crisis we can bounce back from. As the pendulum swings higher and faster, the outcome will be more radical.


THE END OF THE START-UP ERA

Successful business owners and politicians are still talking about “Digital Agenda” or “Digital Transformation” and “The Start-Up-Era” – but this will now be rock-dead. In case you haven’t noticed – the Klondike years of “start-ups” are over. What came as a “start-up” will now end as a “finish down”, as so many are still trying to build the new “Silicon Whathaveyou”. But I got news for you; it is not about silicon anymore and in 2018 the start-up-hype comes to an end. And what about those simple new ideas? Forget your romance, ain’t gonna happen’! The problems to solve are hypercomplex and need huge amounts of data and thousands of the brightest minds working together with the most complex algorithms and can therefore only be solved by the large corporations.

Don’t get me wrong, it is still about creativity and creation, but there are no simple new ideas or eureka moments with shortcuts to fame and fortune. It is all about Entrepreneurship. We are back to the days of “Hard-Core-Entrepreneurship”. Trying Stuff – Leadership, Management and Execution – all world class – the recipe combined with some courage –  boldness – risk to fail.  As many will put their money on trying to build some new “Silicon-Copyhouses” those that succeed will get back to focusing on entrepreneurship. 2018 the year of entrepreneurs.


THE MENSCH – THE RADICAL RESTART

It is a strange world. What we do know, however, We live in one society. There is no outside of society, we have to cope with this strangeness together. There are no borders anymore for knowledge, cash, terrorism, education. It is one interdependent world. With an enemy approaching from other galaxies, we would probably pull our shit together quickly and understand this, but the more realistic scenario is that we will have to learn the hard way. We are steering towards a radical restart. Of course this will be painful, but as we move closer to what we are and how things are related, we end up with some kind of symbiosis between our heart and mind and in positive terms, this should be in a peaceful state.

The road ahead is rocky and the challenges are plenty. We can not turn and surrender to technology for solutions, that would be negligent. Our brain is not an algorithm and if it was, the outcome would be clear. Eventually we would be replaced and become obsolete – Homo Obsoletus. Cracking the algorithm would mean no purpose, no void to fill. Luckily our brain is more like an orchestra, most likely without any conductor, yet we are all playing the same melody but with different facets and tones, and partly with different instruments. We need to continue to work on the melody.  We need to create something that we want to live with. If it is a “God in Machine” (Home Deus or Deus Ex Machina) that we are working on, then we’d better make sure it is one we want to live with.  One that is aligned with all our humanist goals. Even though it will not be bad, it must be within our new systems and models and aligned with the goals of our species. There is some kind of conscious revolution in the making. And it is desperately needed. It will not happen in 2018, but we need to start preparing as the Biblical end-time lies before us and a radical restart for all that it takes and is worth might be the only solution.

2018 will be strange, as strange as we create it. You will still have your reality and I will have my reality as we seek to better understand the world in which we find ourselves. We continue our search for plausible explanations and the nature of reality, and together fine tune the melody of co-existence.


To a peaceful 2018